Why Toyota Is Hellbent On Keeping The Hydrogen-powered Mirai Alive Despite Its Poor Sales

Summary

• Toyota is determined to sell 200,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles annually by 2030, despite low sales and limited infrastructure.
• Toyota is expanding its hydrogen portfolio with partnerships and plans to establish a Hydrogen Factory in Europe.
• Hydrogen-powered vehicles offer advantages such as reduced weight, faster refueling times, higher payload capacity, and adaptability in different environments compared to electric vehicles.

On paper, an FCEV (fuel-cell electric vehicle) uses an electric motor just like a regular EV, but sources power from a fuel stack where hydrogen is separated by a catalyst to generate electricity. This seemingly minor detail marks a huge gap between the two categories and is at the core of Toyota’s unorthodox approach to decarbonization.

While EVs have grown at a rapid pace over the last couple of years, the number of hydrogen vehicles available for purchase can be counted on one hand. At the forefront of these FCEVs, we find the Toyota Mirai, a mid-size sedan boasting a range of 402 miles. Ever since its introduction in 2015, Toyota has sold only 14,105 copies of the Mirai in the United States, including 2,737 examples in 2023, according to CarFigures.

All in all, the Mirai isn’t a bad car, and its inability to attract customers has more to do with the current market conditions than any dearth of features or attractiveness. As of 2023, there were only 59 open retail hydrogen stations in the United States, most of them based in California. On a global scale, the scarcity isn’t any less daunting. There were only 1,089 combined hydrogen stations across the globe by Q2 of 2023. Furthermore, hydrogen technology is rather pricey too, which is why the Mirai comes at a not-so-cheap $49,500 MSRP.

Nonetheless, the Toyota remains undeterred by such factors, and plans on forging ahead with a wider array of hydrogen vehicles, with plans to achieve 200,000 annual FCEV sales in the long run. This strategy is not limited to the FCEV sedan, however, and expands to various other realms, as shown below.

In order to give you the most up-to-date and accurate information possible, the data used to compile this article was sourced from Toyota and other authoritative sources, including Reuters and the European Commission.

Toyota Is Looking To Increase Its Hydrogen Sales Exponentially

In 2023, the Toyota Mirai achieved a 31-percent year-over-year increase in sales. Sounds good, right? Well, that’s until you realize only 2,737 copies were bought. These underwhelming results haven’t deterred Toyota from pursuing its hydrogen ambitions, however. While Toyota has only managed to sell 14,105 models of its only hydrogen vehicle in the last eight years, it remains nonetheless determined to sell 200,000 examples yearly by 2030.

“This may be a strange way of putting it, but 200,000 is not a big number,” explains Toyota’s Chief Technology Officer, Hiroki Nakajima. “We believe this number and more can be achieved.”

Since Toyota hasn’t given up on FCEV technology, it only makes sense for the company to keep its old-trusted sedan around. The longer the Mirai stays on the market, the more it can pave the way for future hydrogen vehicles to come. This allows Toyota to assess feedback from owners, test out the Mirai in real life, and learn from it. And, while the lack of charging infrastructure might have hindered the Mirai’s commercial growth so far, recent patent filings show that Toyota is planning on establishing a “Hydrogen Charging Network”, which would allow for at-home hydrogen fueling.

Although the FCEV business is rather limited now, Toyota said it expects the global market for fuel cells to grow to around $35 billion by 2030. More moderate forecasts are expecting it to expand at around CAGR 25-percent from 2023 to 2032, which would amount to $30 billion. These optimistic estimates are further reflected by the ambitious projects that are currently being laid out by the Japanese manufacturer.

Hydrogen Trucks: Toyota’s Attempt At Reshaping The Industry

While electric cars have already started replacing their conventional counterparts in countries such as Sweden, heavy-duty EVs (namely semi-trucks) are still far behind their gas-powered equivalents in terms of both market and effectiveness. For that reason, some parties have started looking into hydrogen trucks, and vans as an alternative. Naturally, Toyota is also at the forefront of this movement.

FCEV Tanks Boast A Superior Range

In 2023, the company’s North American branch announced the expansion of its partnership with PACCAR to develop hydrogen-powered Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks. The two models in question are the Kenworth T680 and the Peterbilt 579. Both of these trucks already have all-electric versions on the market, although with a limited range of 150 miles.

The FCEV variants on the other hand, will feature Toyota’s latest hydrogen technology, which reportedly translated into 300 miles of range on the Kenworth T680 back in 2023. The upcoming versions are expected to get closer to 400 miles, and possibly even exceed it with bigger fuel tanks. In any case, we shall soon find out, since customer deliveries are planned for 2024. Last year, Toyota also partnered up with VDL Groep to launch their first FCEV demonstration trucks, as part of the company’s ambition ambition to decarbonize its European logistics operations.

Toyota Might Be On To Something

While you might be tempted to criticize Toyota’s strategy (or lack thereof) when it comes to EVs, it’s got many good reasons to continue investing in hydrogen-powered vehicles:

• Reduced weight: Although hydrogen-powered vehicles are heavier than diesel-powered ones, they are considerably lighter than battery-powered vehicles.
• Faster refueling times: According to Toyota, its hydrogen fuel tank can be refueled in 15 to 20 minutes. In contrast, the Tesla SEMI, which is the fastest-charging big-rig in the e-segment, needs 90 minutes to go from 10 to 100 percent.
• Faster deliveries: Since hydrogen trucks need less time to refuel, and can spend more time on the road on a single tank, they are more likely to respect and maintain a packed schedule.
• Higher payload and towing capacity: Electric powertrains tend to lose a considerable amount of range under duress, which is something Toyota intends to fix by implementing hydrogen into the mix.
• Higher adaptability: Electric vehicles can lose a considerable amount of range under wintry conditions, making them less compatible with different environments.

Hydrogen Isn’t A Lost Cause Just Yet

You’ve guessed it now, Toyota is not putting all of its eggs in the same basket, and the Mirai is far from being its last try. On top of diversifying its portfolio, the legacy automaker has also been securing partnerships with other automakers, and expanding its geographical horizons.

Europe: The Next Meccah Of H2

Toyota is notably planning to establish the Hydrogen Factory in Europe, to produce “an increasing number of fuel cell systems and support a widening group of commercial partnerships.”

The decision to open an H2 facility in the old continent is a strategic one. Toyota expects Europe to become a leading force in the global FCEV market by the beginning of the next decade, as growing investments and political incentives pile up. The EU’s transport infrastructure fund has notably awarded €284 million (around one-third of its budget) for the installation of hydrogen stations, which should help solve the current infrastructure issue to some extent. To up the ante a bit, the European Commission’s Green Deal is also set to invest €45 billion by 2027.

Toyota’s Other Hydrogen Projects

While the Mirai is the only production FCEV released by Toyota so far, the Japanese carmaker has quite a few H2 projects on its resumé. Engineers haven’t been sitting idle exactly, and so far, Toyota’s fuel-cell panoply notably consists of:

• A Corolla Cross H2 Concept, powered by a 1.6-liter turbocharged three-cylinder, converted to using hydrogen as fuel.
• An FCEV Toyota Crown built on a newly developed 2.5-liter multi-stage hybrid system, offering 509 miles of range per three-minute hydrogen refill.
• A hydrogen-fueled V-8 engine, co-developed with Yamaha, targeting 455 horsepower at 6,800 rpm and 398 pound-feet of torque at 3,600 rpm.
• A hydrogen-fueled Hilux prototype, with 372 miles of range, which targets a higher towing and payload capacity than EV trucks.
• A hydrogen-powered GR Yaris, which was driven by renowned actor Rowan Atkinson at the 2023 Goodwood Festival of Speed.